Trading Through The Eyes Of A Teenager

Follow Me On Twitter @JulianMarchese !!

2012-01-19T18:00:00.001-05:00

Hey Everyone,

Follow me on twitter! Lots of market savvy tweets to come! : https://twitter.com/#!/JulianMarchese

Julian

Index Comparison Using 2 Moving Averages (50,200)

2011-12-17T14:22:00.001-05:00

This is a good way of quickly indicating divergences between the 4 major U.S. Stock Indexes and judging which is strongest/weakest.

At this point the russell is clearly the weakest, while the nasdaq is leading.

Market Overview

2011-12-17T13:55:00.001-05:00

Hey Everyone,

Going to start updating the site more regularly from now on. Expect some good content for the coming year!

Below is my analysis on the 3 major U.S. Stock Indices, oil and gold. Obviously as we get closer to Christmas I do not expect huge volatility in the coming weeks, however gold is definitely in play should we do see some opportunity arise.

I am slightly bearish in the Indices right now as we are beginning to fill the gap from the 500 dow gain from 2 weeks ago. With uncertainty still raining in europe, the markets will continue to be news driven for the coming months. However relatively good data from the U.S. is keep our markets a float, yet undecided. Looking for a large directional move in the new year to try and take advantage of.

My Contact Info

2011-10-25T18:13:00.003-04:00

Hello Everyone!

You can e-mail me at: mmarchese@rogers.com

Julian

Power Trader Radio

2011-07-13T19:41:00.002-04:00

Hey Guys,

Check out powertraderradio.com every Wednesday night from 7:00pm est - 9:00 est to hear my fellow co hosts Jim Cash, and Mark Ely discuss active market stories, and possible trading ideas!

LIVE NOW!

Julian

Current Positions

2011-07-08T12:05:00.001-04:00

LONG 1000 TLT @ 94.04

LONG 5000 UUP@ 21.32

SHORT 1000 DIA @ 126.83

SHORT 1000 FXC @ 103.00

Nice move after the unemployment report!

DIA

2011-07-07T12:56:00.001-04:00

Sold 1500 DIA @ 126.82 for $670.

Now short 1000 DIA.

FXC

2011-07-06T13:42:00.001-04:00

Short 1000 FXC @ 103.00

Got short the canadian dollar to initiate some downside conviction in equity and commodities, as the canadian dollar closely tracks that.

Current Positions

2011-07-06T11:08:00.005-04:00

Hey Everyone,

Its summer again! Took some time from posting to this blog, though I might start again. Currently trading a macro economic outlook combined with technical analysis.

Long 5000 UUP avg. @ 21.32

Long 1000 TLT @ 94.04

Long 500 DIA avg. @ 125.48

I am long the dollar coming out of QE2 and because of growing european fears. I am also long the bond market for the same reason of european debt problems, and I believe last weeks sell off was over extended.

I am long the dow jones to hedge my bearish economy out look. It has also been out performing compared to other indexes.

Julian

Scalping Crude Oil Futures! +$300

2011-04-19T20:28:00.003-04:00

Hey Everyone!

Haven't been able to update the blog in a while! Anyways, here is a video of me scalping crude oil futures:

Not the best day, but not bad for an hour and a half of trading!

Julian

Nice Trading Day +$170

2011-01-07T15:55:00.005-05:00

Here were my stats today trading in my futures account:

Here's the video!

Julian

Out of Positions

2010-12-13T16:37:00.002-05:00

Out of everything for a scratch. $5+

Good idea : )

Open Positions

2010-12-13T11:39:00.002-05:00

Long 1500 GKK @ 2.38
Long 50 AMED @ 27.86
Long 5000 USDJPY @ 83.57

JASO

2010-12-12T11:25:00.001-05:00

Strong support in this stock below...

AMED

2010-12-12T10:08:00.002-05:00

This stock looks like it could be bottoming.

Open Positions

2010-12-09T15:50:00.002-05:00

Long 2 AAPL 330 DEC 17 Calls @ 1.02

Long 30 TLT @ 93.40

Long 20 MOS @ 68.85

Looking for the markets to probe higher tomorrow...

Long Bonds

2010-12-08T17:50:00.002-05:00

Long 20 TLT @ $93.00

-Testing lower band

-Long ways from MA's

-Buying tails

EURO Stopped Out

2010-12-08T15:31:00.002-05:00

Euro trade stopped out for a -$187.50 loss, as the dollar rallied against a basket of currencies.

Got out before stop because of down volume seemed too great.

Currencies look dead right now...

Long EURO

2010-12-07T18:21:00.004-05:00

Long 1 EUR @ 1.3270

Stop @ 1.3225

Target around 1.34

December 5th Update

2010-12-05T11:28:00.002-05:00

Hey Everyone!

Been testing some new things lately, here's a video on my trading, a short AMT explanation, and a market recap for the coming weeks!!!

Just Thought I'd Share This Image...

2010-11-26T10:43:00.002-05:00

Good image to put on your wall!

Swiss Franc Futures Potential Short

2010-11-22T17:17:00.003-05:00

Potential Short in the 6S, with downside bias, and good reward to risk area:

Short @ 1.0140

Stop @ 1.0170

Target @ 1.0010

Risk: 30 Pips

Reward: 160 Pips

R:R: About 5:1

Good trade IMO.

Longterm Trading Account F and SLV

2010-11-17T19:14:00.002-05:00

Long 100 F @ 16.90

Long 20 SLV @ 25.29

These are longer term positions (weeks-months).

Potential CAD Futures Trade

2010-11-17T16:44:00.001-05:00

Copper

2010-11-14T10:21:00.002-05:00

May be something to watch next week...

Nice ES Trade!

2010-11-12T15:36:00.003-05:00

In the last video I made, you can check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mr3VYRLD-Lk&feature=player_embedded, I went over a potential ES trade that was setting up. This trade did not trigger, but a similar one did. Here is the trade:

As I said in the original video, if the trade did not execute, I wouldn't chase it, I would reassess the market condition. I did, then found an area of good trade location and took the trade. I got 1 tick from the high on this trade! Profited $671 on this trade on 1 contract.

Video On Potential ES Trade

2010-11-11T19:22:00.002-05:00

This video shows and goes over the method of auction market theory, and how it can be applied to trading the ES future. The trade shown is live, I have those orders in the market :).

Look At CSCO Get Slammed!

2010-11-11T07:44:00.001-05:00

Trading Style

2010-11-10T18:12:00.004-05:00

What is trading style, method etc.? It is a way of trading that you find successful... it wouldn't be a method if it is unsuccessful. My main trading method is trading Auction Market Theory, which is the art of finding value (shown by bar and market profile charts) in the markets, and looking for when the market trades outside of value to make a trade. Check out my youtube video I made on trading Auction Market Theory (AMT). The last few months, I've tried out some methods for stock swing trading, and I found success, however I noticed through trading AMT I had a bigger percentage gain on my account. Trading is all about expirementing on what is best for the trading account. AMT trading makes the most sense to me (revolves around reward to risk) and has been best for my trading account. Therefore I will now use this blog for AMT trading and experiments such as the one I just performed.

My Youtube Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQNYjG5D2T4

ES Trade Example Using AMT:

Market Profile

2010-11-08T16:53:00.003-05:00

This is a valuable tool that I have been testing out for the last few months. Learn about it here:http://www.earnforex.com/forex-e-books/forex-market/Market_Profile_Basics.pdf

Below is an example on how you could have used it on GOOG:

No Trades So Far

ES Perspective

2010-11-06T09:23:00.005-04:00

With such power behind the last two day's moves, you would think that this market is over exaggerated. Look back however, to this move up into last April, before the flash crash. It was relentless to the upside with very few pullbacks in between. We could be entering this type of trading again with low volatility, and mostly a buy the pullbacks type strategy. Thursday was a beautiful short covering day, with me being one of them. I think everyone was short in these prices, so when we popped, we REALLY popped. The charts below show my thoughts in where I think the market will be going in the near future. Also, with QE2 still on the horizon, things could change in days so I would be on the lookout. My strategy now is to wait for confirmation before I get short, buy stock, and short vertical spreads, until this move exhausts.

Out of Everything

2010-11-04T15:56:00.004-04:00

Out of every position for a $700+ loss for the last two weeks of trading. I obviously got the market direction incorrect today, and should have had MUCH more protection in Silver and in Equity. I will look back and check to see what I did wrong. The key to trading is to admit your wrong, and to fix your mistakes. Wow, new highs in the equity markets... I would have never thought of it after the flash crash, yet we are back up here. Will volatility return??

Positions

2010-11-03T17:37:00.007-04:00

Long 500 S @ 4.01 (Protective Position*)

Long 25K USDJPY @ 81.04 (Base Yen Bearish Position, will add)

-----------

Short 200 INTC @ 20.50 (Base Position**)

Short 100 JPM @ 37.78 (Base Position**)

Short 50 CAT @ 79.60 (Will add above $80.50)

Short 100 IWM @ 70.45 (Will add above $72)

-----------

Short 4 ES NOV05 1175-1165 Bear Put Spreads (Will probably liquidate 2morrow; time decay)

-----------

Long 200 SLV @ 24.35 (Long Term Core Metal Position, also protective)

*As I am heavily short, this trade is a means of protection against a move higher.

**Base Pos. meaning I will probably not add to these... the ones I add to are for the smaller move down for a quick profit, whereas these positions are for a "base short" or in other words, a bigger move.

ES Bull Put Spread

2010-11-03T16:29:00.002-04:00

Short 4 ES 1175 NOV05 Puts

Long 4 ES 1165 NOV05 Puts

For a gain of $70 in premium IF ES is above 1175 @ expiration.

Out of AMZN Options, Long S, Short JPM

2010-11-03T15:09:00.007-04:00

Out of AMZN, turns out IT was the one that rallied hardest to come back in line with AAPL, NFLX etc. Lost $117 (Gotta keep the losses cut)

Long 500 S @ 4.01 (Protection Trade)

Short 100 JPM @ 37.79

-Weak stock, sector

-Resistance @ and above $38

-Will add higher

A Lot Of Things Are Setting Up For Shorts...

Countdown...

2010-11-03T13:49:00.002-04:00

Countdown till 2:15 now... it WILL be interesting. Watch the bond market for tells... it doesn't lie.

Not A Very Exciting Overnight Session....

2010-11-03T08:54:00.002-04:00

Today I am home from school, and so far from what I have seen in the futures market, it looks like we wont have a very exciting start. It will probably all boil down to 2:15 today when the FED releases their statements.

IWM, CAT Add, AMZN Put Option Trade

2010-11-02T15:33:00.007-04:00

Added to both CAT and IWM today as there move upwards seemed extended. AMZN has been extremely weak lately, with some support at 162.50 area. If that breaks (which I think it will) I think we could see sub 160 prices. Because of this, I am long 1 160 Put as I believe we could see some volatility and movement down.

Current Positions:

Long 1 AMZN 160 NOV19 PUT @ 2.92

Short 50 CAT @ 79.64

Short 100 IWM @ 70.47

Short 200 INTC @ 20.51

BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE NEWS SCENARIO?!?

Interesting Chart To Watch

2010-11-01T17:18:00.003-04:00

Below is a chart of the ADVANCING-DECLINING ISSUES of the NYSE (which is hidden), with 2 moving averages (showing) plotted on top of it. The two moving averages are the 3 Period MA (Red) and the 20 Period MA (Black). The two blue lines are the overbought and oversold conditions for the 3 Period MA, and the two green lines are the overbought and oversold conditions for the 20 Period MA. The 3 Period MA is used for timing turning points for the short term, where as the 20 Period MA is used for the long term. Currently we have a situation in which the 20 Period MA is in the upper part of its range, creating a negative divergence from the August high, and the 3 Period MA is contracting. This happened before the flash crash as well. This indicates that we should see volatility (Red line would then expand out of this contracting pattern), and a downside bias (as the Black line is in the overbought area). Another reason for a drop???

Short Some Stock In These Areas

2010-11-01T15:55:00.003-04:00

It looks like the stock market could falter this week with all this news around the corner. I personally think in the coming pull back, we could see the YM at around 10850. It's time this market could move. Just look at that pure rejection off of the 2010 highs on the dow. As the Russell 2000 is usually the leader, I am short that. This range we have been making lately has been consisted of strong mornings (gap ups) and weak days. If we have a weak morning, we could have some real follow through.

Open Positions:

Short 200 INTC @ 20.51

Short 50 IWM @ 69.74

Short 25 CAT @ 79.10

Out Of ALL AAPL Trades

2010-11-01T15:35:00.001-04:00

Out of all AAPL positions for a loss of about $25.

Weekly Recap

2010-10-30T10:10:00.006-04:00

Weekly Recap:

October 18th-22nd

Starting Cash: $19 408.95

Week Dollar Change: -$174.58

Ending Cash: $19 234.37

Percent Change Of: -0.9%

(Monthly Reporting Will Start In November)

Thoughts:

We had a very choppy week in the stock markets, with every day pretty much being a doji candle on the ES. As I trade best in directional markets, this week faked me out mostly on everything, as I bought most of my shares on Monday, the high of the week. I am still Long 100 AAPL (A large position for me) and if it seems it will not work out, I will trade more bear calls to make up for it in premium. I have realized that in these choppy conditions, either trade options on stocks or commodities and forex, as they might be moving instead of stocks. Small loss this week nonetheless (this includes open positions and premium) and we shall see what will happen next week, I think 1200 is around the corner!

Positions:

Long 100 AAPL @ 303.56 (Theoretical Price is $302.30)

Short 1 NOV 5 AAPL 310 CALL @ 1.53
Long 1 NOV 5 AAPL 320 CALL @ 0.30

Bear Call On AAPL, AAPL Add, Out of SPY and GE

2010-10-29T15:48:00.004-04:00

Short 1 NOV 5 AAPL 310 CALL @ 1.53

Long 1 NOV 5 AAPL 320 CALL @ 0.30

Out of GE and SPY for a loss of $50. No move on them today, freeing up cash.

LONG 100 AAPL @ 303.56

Going to hold till next week. We have some nice support in the $300 level.

Out of EURJPY

2010-10-29T10:24:00.001-04:00

Out of EURJPY as this trade didn't really set up as I would have thought -$100USD.

Long EURJPY

2010-10-28T20:27:00.006-04:00

Reinitiating this YEN short trade.

Looking to add much lower...

Long 40 000 EURJPY @ 112.42

Out of EURUSD, AAPL Add

2010-10-28T12:04:00.002-04:00

Out of EURUSD @ 1.3921 for $120USD

USD is falling with stock market....hmmm

Added 25 AAPL @ $302.01

Avg. on 75 AAPL @ $304.40

AAPL Add

2010-10-28T10:43:00.003-04:00

We know Apple's a strong company, good chance we will get a bounce around $300.

Long 15 AAPL @ 303.78

Avg. of 50 AAPL @ $305.59

Willing to add @ $300

AAPL Dropped AH

2010-10-27T16:57:00.000-04:00

Added 10 AAPL @ 305.20

Avg. 306.28

New Positions And Position Update

2010-10-27T15:18:00.003-04:00

Here are my current positions with adds:

Long 25 AAPL @ 306.72 (Gotta love Apple :D )

Long 20 000 EURUSD @ 1.386

Long 500 GE @ 16.10

Long 75 SPY @118.30

Looking for a bounce here. If there is some sort of weakness I expect I'll short 1 YM or NQ for protection. Here is my view on the market:

Long EURUSD

2010-10-26T08:33:00.001-04:00

Long 15 000 EURUSD @ 1.3891
-Nice support area around here
-Willing to add down to 1.37

Long GE, SPY

2010-10-25T15:22:00.004-04:00

Long 50 SPY @ 118.71

-Closing sell off offered opportunity to buy for cheaper prices

-This market seems to want to go up on anything, BUY PULLBACKS

-Willing to add down to $116

Long 300 GE @ 16.17

-Market is strong, GE should catch up

-Nice bottoming pattern

Weekly Stock Watch Summary

2010-10-23T12:43:00.003-04:00

AAPL-Reported an unexciting earnings report and caused the share price to fall almost 5% on Tuesday. However, because of AAPL's immense strength, the day of earnings was a complete rally higher, almost back to the area of pre-earnings. If AAPL could get below $300 again, we could see quite a bit of follow through.

AMZN-WOW! Strongest of the Tech's this week with a mediocre earnings report still propelling the stock to all-time highs! If it could get below $165 with volume however, we could see the $150's soon enough. No resistance levels to watch as it is at new highs.

BAC-Getting slammed AGAIN this week with volume beginning to die off on Friday. I may want to pick up some of this stock in the $11 area, as it has been some nice support before. I won't say this move is over extended though as this stock has been tanking in a rally market. See how it will react on a large trend day up or down for some more reasoning.

BIDU-WOW! Strong earnings propel Baidu.com to all time highs! Shorts are just getting hammered in this stock, but it is starting to look extended. First off, the candle we put in on Friday is sort of weak, as it has a nice wick on the top of it. Also, it is extremely far away from its moving averages, and it is very unlikely for a stock to stay this far away for a long period. I will begin shorting this stock as soon as I see a topping candle pattern.

C-Creating a nice little range from the $4.05-$4.20 area. I would be interested in shorting this stock if it tests the $4.30 highs. It looks like some sort of break out is brewing in this stock. I would watch the SPY or XLF for confirmation on a move, as with any stock.

CSCO-Stabilizing in the low $23 area, with it closing on its highs on Friday. We have some overhead resistance from a previous earnings gap, and a 200 moving average in the $23.80 area. Lower volume on this move up, even on large impulse days. Watch how a pull back reacts on CSCO.

FCX-Looks like this stock is beginning to top out near the psychological $100 mark, with a strong gap up being rejected into it. A large amount of volume is seen on these last two days of selling activity. Right now the most important areas to watch are $92.50 and $100.

GE-Looks like it is starting to form a base at the $16 area, with a 50 day sma right below. A break below this base could have some initiative selling pressure down considerably lower, as we do not have any significant support until the low $14's.

GOOG-As expected, GOOG ranged this past week after its huge beat on earnings. Remember, 20% of the time, the market is moving somewhere, the other 80% the market is stagnant. After such a large move, in such a short amount of time, it is very common for the stock or market to rest in the coming days. $620 and above is going to be important for GOOG.

GS-Goldman has been extremely strong the past 2 months compared to the financials, and it seems this could continue. We are now above all of our important moving averages, and above some significant support at the $155 mark. This could be a mover in the coming weeks.

INTC-Yesterday INTC tested its earning highs in the $20 area. It looks like this could be a high for INTC next week and I would be interested in shorting it. This stock has been underperforming the technology sector greatly lately and it seems this could continue. There is a seller in INTC and I don't think he wants to go away.

JPM-Following BAC for the most part, with it being one of the weakest financials. We are very close to being near the lows of the year for JPM. I would be a seller in this stock at higher price. We could have a vicious break if we fall through $35 in change.

MOS-Looking like FCX here, and I would play this stock the same aswell. We have a nice gap below that looks like it could get filled very soon. Unless it could break the $70 mark on this stock, I would be a seller at any move up.

MSFT-Definitely a lagard compared to the stock market. MSFT isn't even close to the 200 day sma and I think it could stay below unless this $26.20 area breaks with volume. But with this market already extended, I don't think this is a very probable possibility.

RIMM-The $50 mark is REALLY holding as resistance in RIMM, and if it break we could see a LARGE snap back. I may buy some calls above $50 if the market pulls back and RIMM is still holding around here. Something however would need to act as a catalyst.

SNDK-Wow people are really selling this stock last week. Every gap up, even on earnings have been slammed right back down. We have an uptrend line holding it in the $37 area, which is where we closed. If we could break that I think we could see the low $30's.

X-This $42 area in United Steel just can't break! Someone really likes X here and once he lets up we could see some swift movement down into the $37 area. I would not be a buyer in this support, especially where the market is right now. We will have to see if sentiment changes on this stock.

In ALL Cash; Weekly Performance

2010-10-22T18:48:00.005-04:00

Out of EURCAD for a loss of -$11CAD ($10.70USD)

Out of GBPJPY for a gain of $100JPY ($1.25USD)

Around +$90USD gain for today, in all cash. Out of these positions because of potential weekend risk, as I do not have any sufficient gains in the positions.

Weekly Recap:

October 18th-22nd

Starting Cash: $18 882.94

Week Dollar Change: +$526.01

Ending Cash: $19 408.95

Percent Change Of: +2.8%

Out of BIDU

2010-10-22T09:52:00.002-04:00

Nice trade on BIDU! Broke to new highs, however I think I could have had more size.

Long 20 BIDU @ 103.75 Out @ 108.87 for a profit of $100.40USD

Long BIDU

2010-10-21T18:39:00.002-04:00

Good earnings from BIDU and it looks like its bottoming in this pullback on the daily chart.

Long 20 BIDU @ 103.75

Long GBPJPY Again

2010-10-21T14:07:00.001-04:00

GBPJPY set up again, looking for the same profits...

Long 10 000 GBPJPY @ 127.55

Short EURCAD...

2010-10-21T11:24:00.003-04:00

Still not touching equities, I do not want to buy this breakout. In the meantime I will look for small Forex trades.

Short 20 000 EURCAD @ 1.4311

Looking to add @ 1.4325-50 area
Target around 1.4150

WOW Look at That GBPJPY!!!

2010-10-20T21:45:00.004-04:00

Long 20 000 GBPJPY @ 128.192 Out @ 129.145 For +$19 050JPY (around $235USD)

WOW something happened to the currencies! It gave me a good profit, and I didn't want to hang around in the after math. Nice trade!

No Positions

Trade Exact Numbers

2010-10-20T17:02:00.005-04:00

EURJPY Long 50 000 @ 112.642 Out @ 113.131 For +$24,450JPY (around $301USD)

EURUSD Long 20 000 @ 1.3811 Out @ 1.3953 For +$293USD

YHOO Long 200 @ 15.565 Out @ 16.19 For +$125USD (Should've added more shares)

(Protection Trade) NQ Short 1 @ 2066 Out @ 2088.75 For -$455USD

ALL FOR TOTAL GAIN OF $264USD

Open Positions:

GBPJPY Long 20 000 @ 128.192

I am long this pair as I am still bearish on the Japanese Yen. I got out of my other JPY trade (EURJPY) as I felt I had too much risk on. I will add to this trade however. Here is a chart explaining why I bought this pair:

BTW from now on all open positions, or trades will be bolded, and all closed positions will be italics.

Out of EURJPY and EURUSD

2010-10-20T11:52:00.003-04:00

Out of both of these pairs for a nice profit of about $600-700. I am still holding onto 20 000 GBPJPY, with a target of a lower yen. We shall see, nice comeback today.

Out of YHOO and NASDAQ 100

2010-10-20T11:25:00.002-04:00

Out of both instruments for a loss of around $300, however I am in the money for quite a lot in my Forex positions.

Published from school.

EURJPY Add

2010-10-19T19:51:00.003-04:00

Long 20 000 EURJPY @ 111.70

I am not adding any more, its either going to move up or not, it is at its last support.

Short Nasdaq

2010-10-19T16:38:00.002-04:00

Because of natural market conditioning, it is likely that tomorrow we will continue this down move, at least slightly. Now because of this, I have shorted 1 Nasdaq 100 Futures Contract, for a potential break down, and protection if the euro follows the market tomorrow.

Short 1 NQ @ 2066

Long YHOO

2010-10-19T16:27:00.001-04:00

I would like to have a long position in YHOO from the 15.70-15.00 area.

Long 200 YHOO @ 15.56

Will add up to 700 shares.

Well Here's Our Pullback :/

2010-10-19T15:33:00.003-04:00

Wow... Markets down today over 2%, looks like I should have held short! Right now I really believe the Yen is overvalued and I am short it because of this. I am also long the euro right now. After large drops like these (one day drops), the next day we are usually rotational with a slight downside bias, so tomorrow I am looking to buy some stocks at cheaper prices.

Current Positions:

Long 30 000 EURJPY @ 113.27

Long 20 000 EURUSD @ 1.3811

Long 20 000 GBPJPY @ 128.19

Long GBPJPY

2010-10-19T11:42:00.001-04:00

Long 10 000 GBPJPY @ 128.47

I am bearish on this YEN BIG TIME!!! Take it down government!!!

EURUSD Long Trade

2010-10-19T10:05:00.006-04:00

Long 20 000 EURUSD pair from 1.3805 off of this obvious support area.

This Is Why I Purchased The EURJPY Cross Pair

2010-10-19T09:44:00.003-04:00

The Euro TANKED today! However at the same time the Japanese Yen TANKED as well. Because of this, I am limited to losses, as they can move in tandem with the dollar.

Uploaded from school.

Not Going To Trade Any Stocks Today

2010-10-18T15:51:00.001-04:00

Not going to trade any stocks today, as AAPL could move the financial markets like GOOG did, so that would be unnecessary risk that I do not want to take on.

Nice Signal For The EURJPY Trade

2010-10-18T15:30:00.001-04:00

Today in the EURJPY, we made a nice wick down (in which I bought last night). This trade is starting to look promising, and I am still willing to add to it.

LONG EURJPY

2010-10-17T20:26:00.006-04:00

As I am looking to build a core long position, I will add if we break lower.

Long 30 000 EURJPY @ 113.27

Interesting Money Flow

2010-10-17T17:44:00.001-04:00

This chart shows how large speculators have been short at every market top since the flash crash (highlighted as red). They are now short more than they ever were....

Look At SILVER GO!

2010-10-16T17:48:00.002-04:00

Stock Watch Summary

2010-10-16T10:37:00.004-04:00

Every weekend, I will go over these stocks that are my base trading stocks.

AAPL-Strong mover on Friday, with a five dollar breakout into the close. Large volume on this breakout, and it seems the $300-$305 mark will be good support. It is very extended, though that does not mean it can't go higher.

AMZN-Another strong mover with a 5% move up on Friday, also with a large amount of volume. We have a nice support zone in the $160-161 area. New all time highs were made today, no resistance.

BAC-As most financials right now, BAC is technically broken. We have made new year lows, with large amounts of volume. On the daily chart we have a large support area in the $11.50-12.00 area. Break down point is the $13.30 gap area, may look to short into there.

BIDU-Relatively weak compared to other tech stocks such as AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG. We have been ranging from the mid 90's to the low 100's. As BIDU has been a strong upward trending stock, a break upwards is likely to buy on.

C-Another financial stock that has lost a good chunk of share value over the last 2 days. C doesn't look to compelling right now as it is right in between its range, however it is resting on its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

CSCO-Right now CSCO is testing an important resistance zone from a gap made in early August of this year. There is also the 200 day moving average right above in around the $24 mark. As this stock is underperforming the Nasdaq, I may look to short into that area.

FCX-WOW! Large up move in FCX, with no real news! Great outperformer, but it looks like it needs a rest. I am looking to short OTM puts in FCX, at areas were I believe it could bounce. The trend is your friend on this one...

GE-Large down move on Friday, as the company's revenue fell short. As of right now it looks as though GE could be accepted back into it's $16-$13.50 range. If this is true, I will be looking to short this stock for a break down.

GOOG- WOW! Look at GOOG move off of its killer earnings!!! We have a huge gap that will be filled at some point, but I wouldn't be fading it right now. Next level up would be the $620 high it made in early January.

GS-Strongest of the financials as of right now, as it is holding its 200 day, and the $150 mark. It is forming an interesting wedge pattern right now that could make an exciting start next week. Bias is to the upside in Goldman, and we could see a break of $157.50 with volume.

INTC-Another weaker tech stock, as it was rejected at the $20 mark off of earnings. The $20 mark is an extremely important area for INTC as it also marks a downtrend line. I may want to purchase some $20 calls as we could have a large move if it breaks.

JPM-If this market is going to go down, the financials are going to be leading the way. JPM has failed make a higher high above $42 and is now coming down to test the $36 mark. If this market stays strong however, I will be a big buyer here.

MOS-A very strong stock, extremely close to having a large break to the upside. If we could break the $70 mark with volume, we could see $80. Large support in a gap around $62.50, I would be a buyer in those levels.

MSFT-Another stock underperforming it's index. We have a large resistance zone in the $26-$26.50 area. MSFT was hit extremely hard after the flash crash, so we could see some catch up in the next few weeks.

RIMM-Still RIMM has been underperforming the stock market greatly, with very little energy to bounce. Just like MSFT, I do think this stock could have a snap-back rally at some point, but it would be FAST.

SNDK-Looks like it could be setting up for a large bounce possible with it resting on both its 50 and 200 moving averages. The $40 level is very important, and I will probably buy some $41 calls. This stock could very easily be accepted back in the $45 area.

X-One of the weaker stocks, with commodities bouncing, I believe that X could have a sharp bounce in the near future. We have some large support in the $42 area, but if that breaks, watch out below!!!

WOW! We are just ripping higher!!!

2010-10-15T16:58:00.001-04:00

Out of ALL Short Stock

2010-10-15T15:21:00.001-04:00

Out of FCX and AAPL for a total loss of around $600. We will look for better prices to be short.. GOOG earnings didn't help.

This Market Does Not Want To Pull Back

2010-10-14T17:33:00.002-04:00

Obviously with this large GOOG report, this market is not showing any weakness, and this market has not found an area of balance or value. I do believe a pull back is coming, and I will be waiting until the good price to short will become available. Closed both AAPL, and DELL shorts today for a loss of $550. Looking to make back this money when the short oppurtunity arises once more. Until then I will be buying this move up.

Frustration....

2010-10-14T15:42:00.002-04:00

The two stocks I shorted, AAPL and DELL are up today in a down market :/. I will hold for tomorrow though...we shall see.

Out of FCX, KFT, AAPL Option Recap

2010-10-13T16:24:00.004-04:00

Out of all 3 positions for a total loss of $48.78, lightning up on short positions just incase of a possible continuation. My BIDU, GOOG, Bull Put Options are almost gaurunteed to expire worthless, making up for this loss incurred, with a potential profit. This is an example of how options can protect you in trading. Still short DELL and AAPL, looking for a pullback.

BTW... Now that I am out of KFT Stock, I am looking to liquidate my option position tomorrow for whatever profit or loss. Also looking to add 3-4 contracts to my DELL options for more protection.

This Day Does NOT Look Good...

2010-10-13T15:57:00.003-04:00

To me this market looks very tired, and I am going to hold short. We are now testing an important break down area, and everyone who is short there would want to keep it lower. AAPL seemed to just stall today, no extreme buying above $300. We shall see tomorrow.

Current Positions

2010-10-13T15:34:00.001-04:00

Short 1 GOOG OCT 15 490 Put @ 0.55 (+$55)

Long 1 GOOG OCT 15 480 Put @ 0.31 (-$31) =$24 less comm.

Short 6 BIDU OCT 15 90 Put @ 0.18 (+$108)

Long 6 BIDU OCT 15 85 Put @ 0.08 (-$48) =$50 less comm.

Short 50 FCX @ 96.50
Short 1 NOV 19 72.50 Put @ 0.47
Short 400 DELL @ 13.835
Short 4 Puts NOV 19 13 STRIKE
Covered call KFT @ NOV 19 32 STRIKE @ 0.29
Short 100 AAPL @ 299.50

KFT, AAPL Option Out

2010-10-13T15:33:00.001-04:00

Out of both KFT and AAPL 300 Put for a total gain of $81.

AAPL, FCX Add And Option Trade

2010-10-13T10:02:00.004-04:00

Short 50 AAPL @ $301.50
Avg. Price $299.58 on 100 shares
Short 1 AAPL OCT 15 300 Put @ $2.09

Short 25 FCX @ $97.77
Avg. Price $ 96.50 on 50 shares

-Trades are from school

Market Recap

2010-10-12T17:22:00.003-04:00

Today was a relatively low volume day once again (until the fed minutes), with a slightly bullish move into the close. To me it seems as though the market is trying to find any way to move higher. INTC earnings today did not have much of an effect on the futures, so I am expecting a neutral day tomorrow as no news is coming out. In my opinion the market needs to "refuel" in order to go higher, in the form of a pull back. We are also coming into some important overhead resistance, AAPL is at the big $300, we will see how we react here.

INTC Trade Video

2010-10-12T16:37:00.002-04:00

Cool video of the INTC trade I made: INTC Trade

Out Of INTC

2010-10-12T16:23:00.002-04:00

Out of Long INTC @ 20.13 for $35 profit

Not much of a move....

Account Update INTC Trade

2010-10-12T15:49:00.004-04:00

Currently net down $110 in stock and net up $302 in my option positions. My ideal situation for the account currently would be a sell off in the next few days. I am predicting a pull back to potential profit on, then get on the train higher.

INTC is coming out with earnings today, and from recent history it has done well. It is a strong company, and I predict we could see its share price rise after hours today. At the first sign of poor price action, I'm out. As INTC moves the NASDAQ quite a large amount, if earnings are bad, it should offset my loss in AAPL and DELL.

Long 100 INTC @ 19.76

AAPL Add

2010-10-12T15:43:00.001-04:00

Short 25 AAPL @ 299.05

Avg. Price $297.72 50 shares

-$300 dollar mark could see some activity

DELL Add

2010-10-12T15:39:00.002-04:00

Short 200 DELL @ 13.99

Avg. Price 13.835 400 shares

Short 2 DELL NOV 19 13 Strike Puts @ 0.34

-Still some overhead resistance (see chart in prev. post)

Market Recap

2010-10-11T16:08:00.002-04:00

Today was a very low volume day for the most part, with some down volume picking up into the close. Although my bias is still to the upside (i am net short), I do believe we could see a pull back in the next few days, as at the open, there was no interest to move this market to new highs. I have also taken some stagnant-upside option trades in strong stocks such as BIDU and GOOG. I am short AAPL and FCX as both broke to new important highs with little to no interest to continue to the upside. My stock shorts are currently for a pullback move. KFT is my protection in stock, as well as some covered calls and puts. Here are my current positions.

Short 1 GOOG OCT 15 490 Put @ 0.55 (+$55)

Long 1 GOOG OCT 15 480 Put @ 0.31 (-$31) =$24 less comm.

Short 6 BIDU OCT 15 90 Put @ 0.18 (+$108)

Long 6 BIDU OCT 15 85 Put @ 0.08 (-$48) =$50 less comm.

Short 25 FCX @ 95.29
Short 1 NOV 19 72.50 Put @ 0.47
Short 200 DELL @ 13.68
Short 2 Puts NOV 19 13 STRIKE @ 0.37
Long 100 KFT @ 30.93
Covered call @ NOV 19 32 STRIKE @ 0.29
Short 25 AAPL @ 296.35

GOOG BIDU Bull Puts

2010-10-11T13:12:00.004-04:00

Short 1 GOOG OCT 15 490 Put @ 0.55 (+$55)

Long 1 GOOG OCT 15 480 Put @ 0.31 (-$31) =$24 less comm.

Short 6 BIDU OCT 15 90 Put @ 0.18 (+$108)

Long 6 BIDU OCT 15 85 Put @ 0.08 (-$48) =$50 less comm.

Therefore if these stocks stay above their short puts (highlighted line) by the close this friday, I collected $74 profit from premium.

FCX Short

2010-10-11T12:29:00.002-04:00

Short 25 FCX @ 95.29

Short 1 NOV 19 72.50 Put @ 0.47

-Will add up to around $100

-Looks over extended

Short Dell

2010-10-11T11:13:00.004-04:00

Short 200 DELL @ 13.68
Short 2 Puts NOV 19 13 STRIKE @ 0.37

-Will add up into $14

KFT Long

2010-10-11T10:26:00.003-04:00

Long 100 KFT @ 30.93

Covered call @ NOV 19 32 STRIKE @ 0.29

-Looking for move to $32

-Will add down to the $30's

AAPL Short

2010-10-11T09:28:00.004-04:00

Short 25 AAPL @ 296.35

-Over extended move

-Will add above for pullback

-Looking for a move back to $294 and lower

Some Of The Big Names

2010-10-11T09:22:00.001-04:00

Today is going to be an interesting day for the stock market. The ES is at some very important levels that could be threatened easily today. Watch the big, strong names, such as AAPL AMZN BIDU and GOOG to see if buying is present above 1060.

Stock Market Predictions

2010-10-10T11:32:00.000-04:00

Looks like we might be near at least some sort of pullback. Bias is still to the upside as long as the 1150 area holds. We have a large gap form 1135 to 1142.50. May hold as support as well. Looking to buy names such as AAPL and BIDU next week.

Welcome To The Blog!

2010-10-10T09:46:00.000-04:00

Hello Everyone,

My name is Julian Marchese, I am fourteen years old, and I day trade and swing trade stocks, options, futures and forex. My strategies originate from constant studying and watching of the markets. I believe in order to be successful, you must believe in yourself, which in turn would mean believing in your strategy. You must formulate your OWN strategy in order to have confidence in your trading. As I am 14 years of age, I can only trade the last hour of the trading day, and occasionally during school through the means of a school computer. I mostly swing trade stocks and options, and will occasionally day trade futures and forex.

This blog will be mostly a trading journal, where I post my entries and exits throughout the trading day. I will also post my thoughts on certain markets, my hypothesis' for the next trading day, and the occasional account performance.

I hope you enjoy this blog! Comments, suggestions etc. are welcome!

Thanks and I hope you enjoy this blog!

Julian Marchese